Iran and Saudi Arabia: Fragile Managed Rivalry
Tehran and Riyadh have agreed to restore diplomatic relations, however, every actor who stands to lose from the agreement has strong incentives to sabotage it.
Tehran and Riyadh have agreed to restore diplomatic relations, however, every actor who stands to lose from the agreement has strong incentives to sabotage it.
Policy differences with the United States over Ukraine and Syria will continue as Gulf states’ strategic diversification and growing confidence in regional preeminence create a new Gulf norm for significant policy divergence, balanced by calculated security convergence.
Pakistan hopes enhanced security ties with the Saudis will win it financial support. Cash-strapped Pakistan may have little choice but to hold out the possibility of a strategic defense partnership with Saudi Arabia.
Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein’s public outreach and official meetings seem to have put Iraq back on the policy agenda in Washington. But both sides will need to take further steps to sustain the positive momentum.
Riyadh’s approach to humanitarian assistance and charitable giving, evident in the Syria relief effort, reflects significant organizational changes in line with the kingdom’s broad transformation agenda.
With the new Taliban regime in Kabul, Saudi leaders are likely to remain cautious and keep a close eye on power dynamics. But they are likely to keep some channels of communication open with the Taliban to promote stability in the region.
A downturn in Taliban-Qatari ties has indirectly contributed to an increase in engagement between the Taliban and the United Arab Emirates, suggesting the UAE may become the new regional interlocutor with the Taliban.
Drone exports and cooperation with Russia are part of a quid pro quo strategy that could provide a much-coveted boost to Iranian air defense and military hardware.
Saudi Arabia’s expanding relationship with China signals its attempts to emerge as a mid-level international power, but that shouldn't threaten the partnership with Washington.
Two old regional partners forge ahead with renewed diplomatic, economic, and security ties, putting frictions related to Qatar boycott in the rearview mirror.
Learn MoreThrough its careful examination of the forces shaping the evolution of Gulf societies and the new generation of emerging leaders, AGSIW facilitates a richer understanding of the role the countries in this key geostrategic region can be expected to play in the 21st century.
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