Senior Resident Scholar, AGSIW
Robert Mogielnicki is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. He created and leads the Next Gen Gulf series examining technology trends in Gulf Arab states and Looking East: The China-Gulf Initiative. A specialist in the political economy of the Middle East and North Africa, he is a term member at the Council on Foreign Relations. The Middle East Policy Council listed Mogielnicki in their inaugural 40 Under 40 awards for influential Middle East experts.
Mogielnicki teaches a graduate-level seminar on China-Middle East and North Africa relations as an adjunct assistant professor at Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service and the George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs. He is a research mentor for undergraduate students through the Georgetown University Research Opportunities Program and the Laidlaw Undergraduate Leadership and Research Scholarship Programme.
Mogielnicki is also a regional and methodology advisor with Freedom House for a multiyear research project on global media and technology influence. Mogielnicki authors the Middle East and North Africa section of the quarterly “Global Mobility Report” published by Henley & Partners, a global citizenship and residence advisory firm, and he is a member of the firm’s board of advisors. Mogielnicki previously served as a human resource development consultant for an Oxford-based research consultancy that operated across the Gulf region. Prior to his consulting career, he worked in journalism, covering political and economic developments in post-revolutionary Egypt and Tunisia.
His book, A Political Economy of Free Zones in Gulf Arab States, was published by Palgrave Macmillan’s international political economy series in April 2021, and he is currently working on an edited volume examining the political economy of sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East and Asia. Mogielnicki has authored several book chapters on the politics and economics of Gulf Arab states and the political economy of the broader Middle East. His work and commentary on the region have appeared in Foreign Policy, Bloomberg, Axios, Forbes, Reuters, Nature, Financial Times, The Banker, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Vox, Los Angeles Times, S&P Global, and Nikkei Asia, among other prominent outlets.
Mogielnicki received his DPhil from the University of Oxford’s Magdalen College, where he conducted research in conjunction with the Oriental Institute and Middle East Centre. Drawing on extensive fieldwork in the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait, his dissertation examines the political economy of free zones in Gulf Arab countries. He earned his MPhil in modern Middle Eastern studies from St Antony’s College, University of Oxford, and completed a master’s thesis on labor policy formulation and implementation in the emirates of Abu Dhabi and Dubai. He received his BA from Georgetown University as a double major in Arabic and government, graduating magna cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa.
Mogielnicki specializes in the intersection of politics and economics across Gulf Arab states. He is particularly interested in how these geostrategic states engage in processes of economic transformation through trade and investment policies, labor market interventions, economic diversification, and technological innovation.
Mogielnicki speaks Modern Standard Arabic and the Egyptian dialect, and he possesses a working knowledge of the Tunisian dialect. He is a former recipient of the Sultan Qaboos Arabic Language Scholarship (2007-11) and served as a Critical Language Scholar in Tunisia in 2011. Mogielnicki has lived in the UAE, Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Turkey, and Jerusalem.
Hosting the World Cup will be a huge opportunity for Saudi Arabia, supporting Vision 2030 reforms. While preparations for the tournament will be costly, they will boost economic growth and could spur further social change.
Whether or not former President Donald J. Trump wins the presidency for a second time, his commercial brand will remain a visible feature of the Gulf region.
On October 22, AGSIW hosted a discussion on Oman's economic reforms.
As Gulf governments accelerate domestic development agendas, local job creation and tax revenue are measurable indicators of successful economic policymaking.
Recent developments in Bahrain-China ties reflect less alignment and more coincidence of interests.
On June 11, AGSIW convened its 10th annual Petro Diplomacy conference.
While Gulf sovereign wealth funds have long invested in promising technology-focused firms, these investment vehicles are increasingly underpinning ambitious plans to reposition Gulf countries as global hubs for advanced technologies.
Following progress addressing economic vulnerabilities, Oman is poised to enter a new phase of economic policymaking, armed with new policy tools and development initiatives.
The longer-term desirability of Neom’s destinations depends largely on the fast-changing domestic environment within Saudi Arabia, yet a tough regional neighborhood will keep Saudi planners on their toes.
On January 25, AGSIW hosted a discussion on hydrogen in the Gulf.
On January 23, AGSIW hosted a discussion on China-Gulf relations.
AGSIW experts explain the regional trends they’ll be following most closely as the year unfolds.
On January 9, AGSIW hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they looked ahead and assessed trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year.
Beneath Saudi officials’ tough talk on the Regional Headquarters Program lies a strong desire for constructive engagement with top global firms and attracting greater inflows of foreign investment.
On October 19, AGSIW hosted a discussion on sovereign wealth funds.
Energy cooperation is a central factor in not only China-Gulf economic relations but also the triangular – and often fraught – relationship among the United States, Gulf states, and China.
The combination of slowing growth trends and persistently ambitious development plans is likely to increase regional economic competition.
On June 20, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the economic statecraft of the Gulf Arab states.
The Omani government deserves credit for sound economic policymaking and reform progress, but the longer-term outlook for the economy remains uncertain.
Riyadh has charged back into the development limelight in recent months, highlighting the capital’s central role in Saudi Arabia’s ambitious economic transformation agenda.
On April 5, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the potential free trade agreement between China and the Gulf Cooperation Council.
Given Saudi Arabia’s economic might and Oman’s specialized knowledge, cooperation – rather than competition – in the economic zone space may serve both countries’ interests.
On February 9, AGSIW hosted a discussion on Asia's role and interests in the Gulf's evolving regional framework.
Inconsistent policymaking, slowing growth figures, and a shrinking population may put to question China’s collective strength as an economic partner for the Gulf Arab states.
AGSIW experts explain the regional trends they’ll be following most closely as the year unfolds.
AGSIW hosted a virtual private roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they looked ahead and assessed trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year.
On December 15, AGSIW co-hosted a discussion on a new IMF policy paper examining the key prospects and challenges facing the region as 2023 approaches.
Despite subjecting the small Gulf state to criticism, over the long term, hosting the 2022 FIFA World Cup enhances Qatar’s brand recognition and can help accelerate the country’s tourism agenda.
AGSIW convened the 2022 UAE Security Forum on November 17, where U.S., UAE, and regional partners gathered to find creative solutions to some of the region’s most pressing challenges.
The development strategy behind Neom is coming into focus: Planners want the megaproject to reflect something greater than the sum of its parts while trying to tether lofty ambitions to reality with major global event commitments.
On October 20 and 21, AGSIW convened its eighth annual Petro Diplomacy conference.
On September 15, as part of the China-Gulf Initiative, AGSIW hosted a discussion examining energy relations between China and the Gulf states.
Regional governments are balancing a desire to attract high net worth individuals and skilled expatriates against the need to ensure the economic welfare of their citizenry.
China’s willingness to boost imports of discounted Russian crude oil reinforces why Gulf oil- and gas-producing states should strive for diversified energy partnerships.
The financial windfall from oil and gas exports may boost regional officials’ ambitious economic diversification plans but doesn’t make them foolproof.
With the announcement of a new corporate tax, Emirati officials aim to demonstrate fiscal strength without disrupting the country’s image as an investment hub.
On March 8, AGSIW hosted a panel discussion on the China-Gulf relationship, based on the "Routledge Handbook on China–Middle East Relations."
Economic ties between China and the Gulf states are indeed growing but not necessarily in every direction nor at an infinitely accelerating pace.
On Tuesday February 8, AGSIW co-hosted the launch of an International Monetary Fund report on the economic recovery outlook for Gulf countries.
AGSIW experts explain the regional trends they’ll be following most closely as the year unfolds.
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund continues to enjoy steady growth aided by technology-focused investments, but the sovereign wealth fund’s 2030 growth target remains distant.
AGSIW's leadership and scholars assessed trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy in 2022.
From December 7-9, UAESF 2021 assessed geopolitical trends in the region.
There is still time for Saudi Arabia to accomplish many of Vision 2030’s foreign investment objectives, but the window of opportunity is closing quickly.
The underlying economic factors driving debt issuances, issues related to how raised funds are redeployed within local economies, and the implications of looming debt maturities help to paint a comprehensive picture of the state of Gulf Arab economies.
On October 14, AGSIW, in partnership with ABANA, hosted a discussion examining the role of Gulf sovereign wealth funds in the world economy.
The UAE’s push to reinvigorate its economy, in this manner and at this time, is linked to Expo 2020 Dubai, regional competition, and a broader realignment of Emirati foreign policy to better serve economic interests.
On July 27, AGSIW and the National University of Singapore's Middle East Institute hosted a discussion on economic diversification efforts in the Gulf Arab states.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are pushing to advance their economic interests, but it does not necessarily have to be a zero-sum game.
On July 13, AGSIW hosted a discussion of Robert Mogielnicki's recent book, "A Political Economy of Free Zones in Gulf Arab States."
Free zones are poised to remain central elements of the post-coronavirus economic recoveries in Gulf Arab states despite shocks impacting the broader business-oriented sector and ongoing commercial reforms.
On June 2, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the economic future of expatriates and citizens in the Gulf.
Robert Mogielnicki discusses the centralization of economic policymaking and the consolidation of power amid the fast pace of new initiatives in the kingdom since the launch of Vision 2030.
The pace and scope of economic development initiatives and policies announced during the first five years of Saudi Vision 2030 have been dizzying, but any eventual progress is likely to be either broad and incremental or narrow and deep.
If Omanis aren’t ready to shoulder a 5% VAT, then they have a long, bumpy economic road ahead of them.
On April 6, AGSIW hosted a dial-in briefing on recent developments in Qatar and Kuwait.
Emirati officials are rolling out an array of policies and initiatives intended to attract higher-skilled expatriates, but overlapping initiatives will likely heighten regional competition over foreign talent.
A focus on sustainability-oriented economic policies and commercial initiatives in Saudi Arabia will not necessarily advance fiscal sustainability efforts in the kingdom.
Mostly smaller budgets and conservative oil price assumptions signal the start of another challenging economic year for the Gulf region.
AGSIW hosted a virtual private roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they looked ahead to assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region during the coming year.
AGSIW experts explain what regional trends they’ll be following most closely as the year unfolds.
Economic gains associated with the Gulf reconciliation will be narrow and limited, and any economic momentum should be channeled to tackle longer-term challenges in the region.
Gulf Arab states like Bahrain cannot preserve the traditional form of their economies indefinitely, but they can influence how their new digital future will unfold.
On December 10, AGSIW partnered with the International Monetary Fund on the launch of its Gulf Cooperation Council report.
AGSIW hosted a virtual private roundtable to discuss Saudi Arabia’s efforts to diversify its economy and attract investments, its presidency of the G-20, recommendations of the T20 group of think tanks, and the outcomes of this year’s G-20 meeting.
Saudi policymakers face the dilemma of how to accomplish ambitious Vision 2030 targets with fewer financial resources and more uncertainties.
The unpredicted fallout from the coronavirus pandemic shortly after the new sultan ascended the throne not only raises the stakes associated with reform implementation but also will test the population’s ability to shoulder new economic burdens.
Economic ties between the UAE and Israel are moving rapidly in many different directions, but the hard work lies ahead.
The interrelated crises of the coronavirus outbreak and oil price rout have placed severe economic pressure on Gulf governments and private sectors across the region, highlighting prevailing dynamics and exacerbating existing trends in Gulf economies.
On September 22, AGSIW hosted a virtual panel discussion examining the impact of the coronavirus pandemic and energy market outlook on startups and entrepreneurial initiatives in the Gulf.
Regional policymakers must grapple with how the political and economic systems that they plan to sustain with today’s debt can meet tomorrow’s obligations.
As Gulf Arab policymakers continue to confront an ambiguous future, they will rely heavily on familiar economic policy measures and avoid straying from the status quo as long as possible.
Implementing stronger corporate governance frameworks that apply to regional startups is a good starting point to increase investor confidence in a challenging economic climate.
The coronavirus pandemic and oil price rout have provided China the opportunity to expand its dimensions of economic influence in the Gulf.
Oman’s precarious reliance on energy exports to China and insufficient Chinese investment in non-oil segments of the Omani economy leave the sultanate in a weak position to address urgent economic challenges.
Advancing Oman’s technology initiatives can help the government address economic challenges that have assumed a new degree of urgency following the coronavirus outbreak and oil price collapse.
The global economic slowdown presents Chinese entities with a cost-effective opportunity to expand investments in strategic sectors across the Gulf region.
A tense period in U.S.-Saudi relations has not dissuaded the kingdom’s Public Investment Fund from investing in major U.S. companies during an opportunistic spending spree.
On May 20, AGSIW hosted a virtual panel discussion examining the effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the long-standing issues confronting Gulf labor markets.
Smart spending on the enhancement of Gulf governments’ digital capabilities and the development of technology-focused industries is needed to bolster future growth.
On April 21, AGSIW hosted a virtual panel discussion analyzing the historic deal that ended the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Abrupt and potentially lasting changes to the Gulf’s air transport sector threaten existing business models over the short and medium terms.
On April 7, AGSIW hosted a virtual panel discussion examining the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak in the Gulf.
The collapse of the OPEC+ production agreement and the ensuing oil price war place pressure on joint investment initiatives spearheaded by Saudi and Russian sovereign wealth funds.
The region’s digital economy is poised to play a greater role in economic diversification strategies as crisis management measures give way to longer-term planning.
Discussions over establishing an esports free zone in Dubai reflect the high-growth potential of competitive online gaming across the broader Gulf region.
On March 10, AGSIW hosted a briefing analyzing recent tensions within the alliance of OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers, OPEC+, and the ensuing oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.
With few available alternatives for accessing water resources, the UAE is continuing to expand existing desalination facilities and construct new desalination plants.
Saudi Arabia’s new $1.07 billion fund, Jada, aims to redirect investments toward small and medium-sized enterprises in the country’s domestic market.
AGSIW hosted a private discussion on the future of Oman following the passing of Sultan Qaboos bin Said.
AGSIW experts explain what regional trends they’ll be following most closely as the year unfolds.
The Houthis are unlikely to find immediate solutions in their nascent electronic currency, but this financial technology nevertheless serves a political purpose for the rebel group.
Robert Mogielnicki assesses the potential economic implications of tensions between the United States and Iran across the Gulf.
Oman’s political transition presents the new sultan and his government with a choice to maintain the status quo of economic policy or undertake a deeper, structural transformation of the energy-dependent economy.
Despite a subdued response by global and Gulf markets, the state of U.S.-Iranian relations poses long-term risks to Gulf Arab economies.
On January 8, AGSIW hosted a conversation considering the trends likely to shape the Gulf region in 2020.
E-commerce development initiatives align closely with high-priority government agendas to build technology-focused, knowledge-driven economies. However, challenges related to payments, regulation, and delivery threaten e-commerce growth prospects across the region.
The Saudi government does not see a viable, long-term future in oil and gas but continues to hope that investors will measure the country’s crown jewel, Saudi Aramco, differently.
Global investors’ interest in Saudi Arabia’s ambitious economic transformation hinges on their ability to secure lucrative commercial opportunities in the country.
Cryptocurrency activity is unlikely to offer the Iranian regime an immediate avenue for evading crippling U.S. sanctions.
While facing bureaucratic and legal hurdles, INOC’s fate rests upon competing visions for the future of Iraq’s oil and gas sector.
The reshuffling of top officials in Saudi Arabia’s flagship state-owned firms and key ministries underscores the growing authority of the Public Investment Fund.
Despite beginning as a regional policy, the VAT in the Gulf is becoming an increasingly country-focused initiative.
The heightened interest in cryptocurrencies across the Gulf is taking place alongside global efforts to both regulate digital assets and attract cryptocurrency firms.
Despite a large appetite among Gulf Arab states for Chinese investment and trade, the UAE has emerged as China’s primary economic partner in the region.
As fiscal constraints increase, tensions in the Gulf rise, and uncertainties surrounding political transition loom, Oman’s role in the Gulf Arab region could come under pressure.
This panel critically examined the current state of economic diversification initiatives in Gulf Arab states.
Gulf Arab states are striving to become tech-driven, knowledge economies, but the digital path ahead is bound to be bumpy.
The strategic implications of interregional engagement between the Gulf and South Asia are becoming clearer and more pronounced.
The economic components of Saudi Arabia’s ambitious transformation, in which local and foreign investments play a pivotal role, ultimately hinge on the government’s ability to improve the transparency of commercial processes.
More spending, low growth, and recurring deficits are not a recipe for long-term economic sustainability, but this concoction may be a necessary pill for Gulf states to swallow as the hard work of economic reform sets in.
Uber’s acquisition of its Dubai-based rival Careem signals a promising new phase for the Gulf’s technology sector.
Three processes of interregional engagement – labor dynamics, energy cooperation, and strategic investments – are crucial for understanding how Gulf Arab states will exercise economic power in South Asia over the coming years.
In this panel, speakers draw on their extensive knowledge of the region’s markets to explain how modern financial mechanisms have acted as a buffer between Gulf societies at large and the newfound cash reserves of Gulf Arab states over the last 50 years.
A series of political disputes is testing bilateral relations between Saudi Arabia and Morocco, but growing economic engagement between the two monarchies offers an incentive for both sides to prevent simmering tensions from boiling over into commercial spheres.
In order to remain a relevant actor in the global economic order, Qatar has established a middle ground between the trends of regionalism and globalization through a strategic strengthening of bilateral partnerships.
The economic relationship between Saudi Arabia and India should be a fruitful one. However, domestic policy decisions and geopolitical tensions pose new – but ultimately surmountable – obstacles.
Short-term measures to replace expatriate workers with Omani citizens could have implications for the sultanate’s long-term economic growth and diversification process.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s November trip to Egypt highlighted the important regional alliance between Riyadh and Cairo, but collaboration over megaprojects may strain Riyadh’s fiscal capacity.
Government efforts to legalize full foreign ownership in specific sectors aim to significantly boost inward foreign investments. However, the commercial reform threatens to disrupt the long-standing economic institutions and commercial incentives associated with free zones.
Despite U.S. sanctions, Iran, with the second-largest economy in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia, is likely to remain an integral economic actor for the Gulf Arab states.
Kuwait hopes to usher in a “new industrial era,” but the country will have to pay more attention to demand and regional competition to boost industrial output.
Nearly a year after Neom's announcement, the futuristic Saudi megacity is still only in the early stages of development. To meet goals of opening fully by 2025, planners must overcome a key challenge: shoring up funding.
Ahmad bin Fahd Al-Mezyed, CEO of Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Culture, used the 2018 Cannes Film Festival as a cinematic backdrop to garner international interest in the Saudi film and television industry.
During the March 25 Kuwait Investment Forum, Kuwaiti government officials reaffirmed the country’s commitment to develop the Silk City (Madinat al-Harir) megaproject and establish an integrated economic zone on five uninhabited Kuwaiti islands.
Discussions between Amazon Web Services and Saudi Arabia to establish a direct presence in the country forecast a broader commercial struggle for control over the e-commerce market in Gulf Cooperation Council countries.
The Saudi, Bahraini, and Emirati efforts to isolate Qatar logistically as part of the most recent Gulf Cooperation Council crisis will require a restructuring of the country’s plans for special economic zones (SEZs) – commonly known as free zones (FZs) in the rest of the GCC states.
